proofs
Provedvariational-cost-lawinformationprior-artreview-response

The variational cost law is Sibson's order-2 information radius: Σ_i Σ_j (λ_i π_ij)²/(λ_i r_j) = Σ_i λ_i Σ_j π_ij²/r_j, so log(min_r E[Σπ²/r]) = I₂(row; key)

For all I,J∈Type⁡\htmlData{mx=1}{I, J \in \htmlData{mx=0}{\operatorname{Type}}}, lam:I→R\htmlData{mx=3}{\mathit{lam} : \htmlData{mx=0}{I} \mathrel{\htmlData{mx=2}{\to}} \htmlData{mx=1}{\mathbb{R}}}, π:I→J→R\htmlData{mx=5}{\pi : \htmlData{mx=0}{I} \mathrel{\htmlData{mx=4}{\to}} \htmlData{mx=1}{J} \mathrel{\htmlData{mx=3}{\to}} \htmlData{mx=2}{\mathbb{R}}} and r:J→R\htmlData{mx=3}{r : \htmlData{mx=0}{J} \mathrel{\htmlData{mx=2}{\to}} \htmlData{mx=1}{\mathbb{R}}}, if ∀i, 0<lam(i)\htmlData{mx=4}{\forall i,\ 0 \mathrel{\htmlData{mx=3}{<}} \htmlData{mx=2}{\htmlData{mx=0}{\mathit{lam}}(\htmlData{mx=1}{i})}} and ∀j, 0<r(j)\htmlData{mx=4}{\forall j,\ 0 \mathrel{\htmlData{mx=3}{<}} \htmlData{mx=2}{\htmlData{mx=0}{r}(\htmlData{mx=1}{j})}} (given Fintype⁡ I\htmlData{mx=2}{\htmlData{mx=0}{\operatorname{Fintype}}\,\htmlData{mx=1}{I}} and Fintype⁡ J\htmlData{mx=2}{\htmlData{mx=0}{\operatorname{Fintype}}\,\htmlData{mx=1}{J}}), then

∑i∑j(lam(i)⋅π(i,j))2lam(i)⋅r(j)=∑ilam(i)⋅∑jπ(i,j)2r(j)\begin{aligned} & \htmlData{mx=19}{\sum_{i} \htmlData{mx=18}{\sum_{j} \htmlData{mx=17}{\frac{\htmlData{mx=9}{(\htmlData{mx=8}{\htmlData{mx=3}{\htmlData{mx=1}{\mathit{lam}}(\htmlData{mx=2}{i})} \cdot \htmlData{mx=7}{\htmlData{mx=4}{\pi}(\htmlData{mx=5}{i}, \htmlData{mx=6}{j})}})^{2}}}{\htmlData{mx=16}{\htmlData{mx=12}{\htmlData{mx=10}{\mathit{lam}}(\htmlData{mx=11}{i})} \cdot \htmlData{mx=15}{\htmlData{mx=13}{r}(\htmlData{mx=14}{j})}}}}}} \\ & \quad \htmlData{mx=0}{=} \htmlData{mx=34}{\sum_{i} \htmlData{mx=33}{\htmlData{mx=22}{\htmlData{mx=20}{\mathit{lam}}(\htmlData{mx=21}{i})} \cdot \htmlData{mx=32}{\sum_{j} \htmlData{mx=31}{\frac{\htmlData{mx=27}{\htmlData{mx=26}{\htmlData{mx=23}{\pi}(\htmlData{mx=24}{i}, \htmlData{mx=25}{j})}^{2}}}{\htmlData{mx=30}{\htmlData{mx=28}{r}(\htmlData{mx=29}{j})}}}}}} \end{aligned}
What the notation means · or point at any symbol
Type
Type: a definition from the library, not special notation. Its name is its meaning; open it in Lean to see how it is defined. (Type)
x ∈ TVariables
I, J range over Type: the statement must hold for every choice. ((I J : Type))
Fintype
Fintype: a definition from the library, not special notation. Its name is its meaning; open it in Lean to see how it is defined. (Fintype)
f(x)Function application
Fintype applied to I. Lean writes f x; papers write f(x). (Fintype I)
⟹Implies
If I, then ℝ. (Between types, A → B is the type of functions from A to B.) (I → ℝ)
∀For all
The statement after the comma holds for every i. (∀ i, 0 < lam i)
=Equality
∑ i, ∑ j, (lam(i) · π(i, j))^2/(lam(i) · r(j)) and ∑ i, lam(i) · (∑ j, π(i, j)^2/r(j)) are the same. (∑ i, ∑ j, (lam i * π i j) ^ 2 / (lam i …)
RReal numbers
The real numbers: every point on the number line. (ℝ)
<Less than
0 is strictly smaller than lam(i). (0 < lam i)
∑Summation
Add up (lam(i) · π(i, j))^2/(lam(i) · r(j)) for every j. (∑ j, (lam i * π i j) ^ 2 / (lam i * r j))
aᵇPower
lam(i) · π(i, j) raised to the power 2. ((lam i * π i j) ^ 2)
a/bDivision
(lam(i) · π(i, j))^2 divided by lam(i) · r(j). In Lean, dividing by 0 gives 0. ((lam i * π i j) ^ 2 / (lam i * r j))
·Multiplication
lam(i) times π(i, j). (lam i * π i j)
πPi
The ratio of a circle's circumference to its diameter, ≈ 3.14159. (π)

Identification pointed out by an external reviewer (2026-10-05): the expected second-moment factor of a proposal r under a prior λ over rows is exp of the order-2 Rényi divergence D₂(P_{row,key} ‖ P_row × r), and Sibson's order-2 mutual information is its minimum over r. The variational cost law (vcl-bayes-optimal-proposal) is therefore exp(I₂(row; key)) with the Sibson centre r ∝ √E[π²] as optimiser. This theorem proves the identity; the minimisation is the law. Prior art: Sibson 1969; Verdú 2015. It weakens any novelty claim for the formula itself.

How it was proved

Proved
5 October 2026
By
Ajax, with the agent “Baguette math & proofs (Claude Code, 2026-10-03)”
Checked by
Lean's kernel (Lean 4.33.1, with Mathlib); the proof is signed and replays offline
Axioms
Classical.choice, Quot.sound, propext
Proof
17 lines of Lean
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